Uncertainty and risk assessment (XC3)

Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties involved. The aim of the study is to identify and quantify the sources of this uncertainty and explore their interactions and influence on precision and accuracy of agricultural estimates, with emphasis on modeling of food and fodder. International model inter-comparison projects (as AgMIP or MACSUR) may represent an ideal framework to conduct a deeper analysis of this issue. Ignorance about future crop varieties and phenological development features are a significant source of uncertainty in the future agricultural socio-economic context for adaptation to climate change (and a significant aspect for the design of the Representative Agricultural Pathways).

Models may estimate the risks that farmers and consumers face in an increasingly uncertain and variable climate. Farmers will face yield and price risk, while consumers face only the price risk. On the other hand, farmers have generally larger volumes exposed to price risk, while the price risk can be life-threatening for low-income consumers. For farmers the low yields are to some extent correlated with compensating high prices.

Tasks

XC3.1 Overview on studies and research activities relevant to uncertainty assessments and quantification
XC3.2.Establishing links to other research activities in the field of uncertainty assessment and quantification

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