Overall scenario development (XC16)

Agricultural aspects have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), but only to a limited extent. In order to analyze the future dynamics of agricultural development they need to be complemented and specified by Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), which cover different aspects of agricultural development as for example EU policy, different livestock management systems, cropping systems or irrigation efficiencies. The RAPs can only to a certain degree be developed as global guidelines which are nationally implemented. Since agricultural aspects are extremely region dependent it is important to translate the overall storylines from SSPs into a specific scenario parameterization at national and regional levels.

In this activity we will develop a general framework for RAPs where we define for each SSP the development of EU-policies and their corresponding suitable RCPs. Based on that we outline the crop management systems (e.g. fertilizer or irrigation efficiency) compatible to certain RCPs, and the intensity and efficiency of livestock systems. This will also serve as input to AgMIP. On this basis we will deliver detailed region-specific RAPs, serving our work in the regional case studies.

In MACSUR 1 a baseline has been introduced for SSP2. CAPRI generated producer and consumer prices, agricultural production and yields for the years 2010, 2030 and 2050 were provided for the three regional pilot studies. In this XC activity CAPRI input for the regional case studies will be extended to the other SSPs.

Tasks

XC16.1: Stakeholder centered expectations
XC16.2: Developing a general framework for RAPs
XC16.3 = XC7.1: Common baselines for integrated EU-wide impact assessment
XC16.4: Specifying the scenarios for the case studies

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