Model comparison and improvement (XC1)

Triggered by the need to answer new scientific questions, but also by the need to improve the accuracy of simulations, model improvement is expected to continue resulting from emerging new questions, better knowledge of physiological mechanisms, and higher accuracy standards. A scientific knowledge hub is a critical pillar to advance in good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation and improvement, an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs. Many of the models used in MACSUR are combining aspects of various disciplines. There is a continuum from models for specific purposes to truly integrated ones. In the first step an overview will be made of integrated models and a method will be developed to classify them. We point out that (1) the evaluation of C-L-T models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (2) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically-based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, and (3) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perceptions.

Tasks

XC1.1: Survey on model improvement needs

XC1.2: General framework for model evaluation and comparison

XC1.3: Establishing links to other research activities in the field of model comparison and improvement

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